All Quiet on the Western Front

April 23, 2009

Thankfully, trade talks involving Anquan Boldin appear to remain speculation at best. My hope is general manager Rod Graves and coach Ken Whisenhunt have set the acquisition cost prohibitively high, so any team serious about trading for Boldin would have to part with an unsavory amount of players and picks.

Here are a few quick thoughts on the rumor mill:

I don’t foresee Boldin being traded for another player or combination of players. Rumors involving Baltimore’s first-round draft pick plus Todd Heap as a “sweetener” are just ludicrous:

Why on earth would the Cardinals give up Boldin, a quick outlet receiver that can go the distance on any given play, for an aging 6′ 5″ jump ball target like Heap? The Cardinals would lose the ability to stretch the field to acquire a guy whose abilities mimick what the Cardinals already have in Larry Fitzgerald. Boldin is dangerous with inside routes and wide-receiver screens, something that can’t be easily replaced by existing wide receivers Steve Breaston or Jerheme Urban. The argument could be made that second-year pro Early Doucet will develop into that role, but with only 14 receptions in 2008, it’s hard to mortage the team’s future on his development.

Similarly, this isn’t baseball. It’s very seldom for one player to be traded for another. Coaches like to develop players through the draft, so unless both coaches have personally worked with the opposing players before (extremely unlikely!), it’s next to impossible to exchange players with the perfect personality, scheme, and contract fit.

Ideally, Boldin remains with the team, Arizona adds some complimentary offensive weapons this weekend, and the Cardinals wrap up a successful offseason having retained the core nucleus from the 2008 NFC Championship team. With playoff experience under their belts and an infusion of talented youth, the Cardinals will have legitimate Superbowl aspirations in 2009.

Category: 2009 Season, Editorial | Tags: Anquan Boldin, Early Doucet, Jerheme Urban, Ken Whisenhunt, Rod Graves, Steve Breaston

One more year: the case for keeping Boldin

February 13, 2009

It’s laughable to me that people forget how quickly things change in today’s NFL. The Cleveland Browns were an up and coming team after the 2007 season; they’re not today. Back in 2005 the Bengals rode the hot arm of young Carson Palmer into the playoffs; Palmer suffered a season ending knee injury on his first pass of the game and the Bungles have never been the same.

It’s the NFL, it happens. A star player one year may not be a star player the next. Coaches leave. Free agents bolt. The schedule toughens. Heck, a team can even lose it’s star quarterback on the first few snaps of the first series of its first game. Just ask Bill Belichick about that one.

The 2008 Arizona Cardinals came within 2:37 seconds of winning Superbowl XLIII, but without their star wide receiver Anquan Boldin, a return to the playoffs in 2009 is unlikely. Here’s why:

1) Teams will figure out how to stop Larry Fitzgerald.
It’s just one of those things, but players don’t go crazy in the NFL (especially in the Superbowl, the NFL’s grandest stage) without every defensive coordinator out there losing sleep in the offseason muttering to himself, “Oh no he doesn’t. Not when we play him, not against us.” So for everyone out there that thinks Fitzgerald’s “special talent” will allow him to rise above the double-coverage, triple-coverage, etc. that he’ll face in 2009, I present to you the case of Randy Moss’s record breaking 2007 season: 98 receptions, 1493 receiving yards (15.2 yard average), 23 TDs, and no Superbowl rings.

Moss took the league by storm in 2007, but in certain games the opposing defense figured out how to take him away. Consider these 4 games from the regular season:

As you can see, there were 4 games (25%) during Randy Moss’s record setting 2007 campaign where he was relatively invisible. And guess what? The Patriots vaunted offense, the juggernaut that went 16-0 in the regular season (winning 14 games by an average margin of 22 points), only managed to beat Philadelphia and Baltimore by 3 points each when Moss was contained.

Even worse, look at Randy Moss’s stat line during the Patriot’s 2007 postseason:

Randy Moss was neutralized, and eventually the Patriots lost to the Giants in Superbowl XLII. I’m not saying Fitzgerald is or isn’t a better player than Moss, I’m just providing a cautionary tale about what works well one year in the NFL may not necessarily work well the next.

2) Kurt Warner won’t have the same year.
Maybe he’ll lose his arm strength like Brett Favre. Maybe he’ll throw a bunch of picks or struggle to adjust to the new schemes cooked up by whoever is the new incoming offensive coordinator, but for whatever reason, don’t expect Warner to come back in 2009 with another MVP-like year. If he does, more power to him, but I sure as heck think his chances and the Cardinals’ chances to return to the Superbowl in 2009 are vastly improved if they have TWO explosive WRs on the field with Boldin and Fitzgerald.

3) If Fitzgerald were to be hurt…
I know, it’s horrible to say, but how confident would you be if our starting WRs in 2009 were Steve Breaston, Jerheme Urban, and Early Doucet? Injuries are a reality in the NFL, and although Breaston, Urban, and Doucet played vital roles on the 2008 Superbowl team, the reality is that together as starters they wouldn’t strike fear into opposing teams or alter defensive gameplans.

Look at it this way: if the Eagles and Giants rumored interest in acquiring Anquan Boldin indicates they believe they’re one superstar WR away from reaching the Superbowl, that would mean losing Anquan Boldin would leave the Cardinals with only one superstar WR on the roster, and one injury to Larry Fitzgerald away from falling out of the playoff picture altogether in 2009. Look at what happened to the Giants this year: they lost Plaxico Burress, were unable to fill the void, couldn’t spread the field, and lost in the playoffs.

4) Anquan Boldin can play.
Boy can he ever. I didn’t follow a lot of college football, so I had no idea who Anquan Boldin was when the Cardinals drafted him in the second round of the 2003 NFL Draft. I didn’t have to wait long to find out, as Boldin set a rookie receiving record with 10 catches for 217 yards and 2 TDs against Detroit in the Cardinals season opener. Nevermind they lost the game 42-24, or that they’d go on to finish Boldin’s rookie season 4-12, but suddenly Cardinals fans had hope, “Hey, we’re that team that found some awesome guy in the second round who’s going to be a superstar!” In his rookie 2003 season Boldin went on to grab 101 receptions (tying the Cardinals franchise record at the time) for 1377 yards and 8 TDs.

He’s been better ever since.

Boldin is the quarterback’s best friend, a guy who can turn a quick WR screen or crossing pattern into a 75-yard TD pass. Boldin takes the big hits and keeps on trucking. Over the past six seasons he’s averaged 83 receptions, 1082 receiving yards, 52 first downs (62.5% of catches), and 6.6 TDs per year.

Boldin’s injury shortened 2008 season was his best yet, where he overcame a horrific early season concussion to catch 89 receptions for 1038 yards and 11 TDs in only 12 games. When his 2008 stats are projected out over an entire 16 game NFL season, Boldin would have finished 2008 with 118 receptions for 1383 yards and 14 TDs.

Playoffs? Who could forget Boldin converting Warner’s short crossing pass into a 71-yard TD scamper down the sideline past Lawyer Milloy in the Cardinals 30-24 Wildcard victory over the Falcons. Certainly not the Eagles or Steelers, who were forced to respect Boldin’s big-play ability and allowed Larry Fitzgerald to have monster receiving games.

Boldin is a guy you want on your team. He’s the Hines Ward of the NFC, and that’s a compliment. Both guys are hard working, blue collar leaders on the practice field and in games, who aren’t afraid to get hit, and accept the punishment that follows the big catch over the middle or throwing a key block in the running game.

Affectionately called “Q”, Boldin is a consummate teammate, quiet leader in the Phoenix community (Anquan Boldin Foundation), and a guy I’d want on my team.

5) Reward your own.
Momentum is such a fickle thing. Suddenly the team that nobody thought was going to do anything won a few playoff games, and the next thing you know the 2008 Arizona Cardinals were confident and hungry and for all intents and purposes should have beat Pittsburgh in the Superbowl. Believe me, I loved every minute of it, but jeez, where did that come from?!

Everything came together perfectly: the leadership of a seasoned veteran quarterback, continuity on the offensive line, two superstar wide receivers hitting their prime, a rookie defensive back playing man-to-man defense out of his mind, a defensive front seven fighting for respect, and a capable coaching staff motivating the team to prove everyone wrong.

Will that happen again this year? Probably not. History shows that the losing team in the Superbowl has only made the playoffs once the following season since 2000, including the 18-1 Patriots team just one year removed from their last second loss to the Giants in Superbowl XLII.

Sure Tom Brady got hurt, but that’s the whole point. Something bad happens. Teams lose momentum. They lose coaches. Players leave via free agency.

Basically, it’s no cakewalk to get back the following year.

That’s why I’m saying reward Boldin now. Stem the tide that opened with the loss of offensive coordinator Todd Haley to the Chiefs (new head coach), the firing of defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast, and all the negative talk revolving around Boldin’s contract and Warner’s potential retirement. Commit to putting a winner on the field by signing Boldin and unrestricted free agent Karlos Dansby and your odds of talking Warner out of retirement increase immensely.

Boldin wants to be part of a winner, but the Cardinals must commit to winning now. Beyond 2009, Warner will almost certainly retire, and who knows how successful the Matt Leinart era will be.

But with Boldin and Warner back next year, the stars could align again. The NFC West will be improved, but the Cardinals are still probably the team to beat. Warner probably won’t repeat his 2008 performance, but with Fitzgerald and Boldin hitting their prime while second year players Tim Hightower, Calais Campbell and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie improve, who knows, maybe the Cardinals can find the playoff magic again.

The Cardinals proved people wrong with great success in 2008. Let’s hope they do it again in 2009.

Category: 2009 Season, Editorial | Tags: Anquan Boldin, Calais Campbell, Clancy Penderg, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Early Doucet, J.J. Arrington, Jerheme Urban, Karlos Dansby, Ken Whisenhunt, Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, Matt Leinart, Steve Breaston, Todd Haley

AZ Cardinals Preseason Report Card

September 3, 2008

Tim Hightower video “highlights” from an exciting preseason

Improved offensive and defensive line play helped the Arizona Cardinals finish the 2008 preseason with a record of 2-2, tied for second place behind 3-1 Seattle.

2008 Preseason NFC West Standings
TEAM________W L T PF PA
Seattle______ 3 1 0 103 77
San Francisco__2 2 0 94 74
Arizona_______2 2 0 75 69
St. Louis______2 2 0 61 71

The Cardinals had the stingiest defense (17.3 points per game), but finished second to last in offense (18.8 points per game). Division leader Seattle allowed a division worst 19.3 points per game, but scored a robust 25.8 points per game.

The quarterback competition between Kurt Warner and Matt Leinart was the biggest headline of the preseason, but several players made notable impacts, including six out of seven rookies from the 2008 draft class. The below is a quick recap of notable players and contributions.

OFFENSE:

Kurt Warner = B+

Warner completed 12 of 17 passes 142 yards (8.4 yard avg), 0 TDs and 0 INTs, for a passer rating of 95.7. He looked solid.

Matt Leinart = C

Leinart completed 28 of 45 passes 354 yards (7.9 yard avg), 2 TDs and 3 INTs, for a passer rating of 73.8. Leinart actually played much better than his 73.8 rating in three out of the four games played, but had one disastrous start against the Raiders, completing just 4 of 12 passes for 24 yards (2.0 yard avg), 0 TDs and 3 INTs that ultimately cost him the starting job.

Brian St. Pierre = B

St. Pierre faced third string competition in most games, but completed 24 of 37 passes 233 yards (6.3 yard avg), 2 TDs and 0 INTs, for a passer rating of 100.4.

Tim Hightower = B+

Hightower rushed 28 times for 107 yards (3.8 yard avg) with 3 TDs and 2 fumbles. He also caught 4 passes for 14 yards (3.5 yard avg) and 0 TDs. He ran with authority, displaying a good one-cut slashing style, and looks to be a fantastic 5th round draft pick.

J.J. Arrington = B+

Arrington made the most of his preseason touches and thensome. Arrington rushed 11 times for 123 yards (11.2 yard avg) with 2 TDs and 0 fumbles. He also caught 2 passes for 10 yards (5.0 avg) and 0 TDs. Arrington broke TD runs of 67 and 27 yards in his final two preseason games, displaying the quickness and straightaway speed that made him a 2nd round draft pick in 2005.

Leonard Pope = B

Pope made the most of his preseason touches, catching 4 passes for 44 yards (11.0 yard avg) for 2 TDs and 0 fumbles. Pope looks to increase on his 5 TDs from 2007, and after a strong preseason that included TD catches of 18 yards and 17 yards in back-to-back games against Oakland and Denver, he certainly seems poised for a strong season in 2008.

Brandon Keith = ?

Hard to say. The 6-5″ 343 lb rookie offensive tackle selected in the 7th round from Northern Iowa made the team, so I’m guessing that’s a good start.

Early Doucet = C

Doucet had 1 catch for 7 yards in his first three games, but ended the preseason on a high note, recording 3 catches for 45 yards (15.0 yard avg) against Denver.

DEFENSE:

Calais Campbell = A-

The first of the Cardinals two rookie DEs had a monster preseason, leading the team with 15 total tackles (12 solo), and 0 sacks. At 6-7″ and 282 lbs, Campbell looks to be an instant contributor in 2008.

Kenny Iwebema = B+

Iwebema was also a preseason rookie DE force, displayed a tremendous bull rush, and recorded 9 total tackles (8 solo), and 2 sacks (tied for the team lead with Travis LaBoy and Clark Haggans).

Chris Harrington = F

Unfortunately, Harrington did not survive final roster cut.

Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie = B

The Cardinals highly touted 1st round draft choice, Rodgers-Cromartie was steady in preseason play, recording 2 solo tackles in each of the first three games, and ended with 3 solo tackles and 1 pass defensed against Denver. His preseason totals were 9 tackles (9 solo) with 0 INTs and 1 pass defensed.

Category: 2008 Season, Editorial | Tags: Brandon Keith, Brian St. Pierre, Calais Campbell, Chris Harrington, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Early Doucet, J.J. Arrington, Kenny Iwebema, Kurt Warner, Leonard Pope, Matt Leinart, Tim Hightower

Cardinals 2008 NFL Draft - addressing three concerns

May 5, 2008

Concern #1: The Cardinals drafted no impact players for 2008

Answer: This concern at face value is valid: rookie cornerbacks develop slowly, rookie running backs can rush for 1341 yards and 12 TDs (Adrian Peterson).

Running backs are almost surefire rookie sensations. Do you remember Anthony Thomas, the “A-Train”, who broke in with Chicago in 2001? He’s bounced around between several teams but never recaptured the promise he showed during his… [you guessed it!] rookie year, when he rushed for 1183 yards and 7 TDs.

So a first round draft pick like Rashard Mendenhall or Felix Jones would definitely work with the first team offense throughout the 2008 season.

But the Cardinals needed help on defense. The team ranked 27th in the league in 2007 against the pass, which effectively nullified the success of the passing offense:

Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TDs Int
2007 Kurt Warner 281 451 62.3% 3417 27 17
2007 Opposing QB 361 570 63.3% 3716 26 18

Kurt had a great year in 2007, but so did all the opposing team’s quarterbacks playing the Cardinals, including:

Alex Smith (57.2% QB rating for 2007)
Gus Frerotte (58.3% rating for 2007)
Vinny Testaverde (65.8% rating in 2007)
Trent Dilfer (55.1% rating in 2007),

The above are not top-ranked quarterbacks, so the Cardinals should have dominated them in those games.

Hopefully 2008 will be different. If Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie has an amazing rookie year, we could hope for numbers like Aeneas Williams put up in 1991: 48 tackles and 6 interceptions.

If Calais Campbell can help defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast apply pressure in third-down packages, he should see significant playing time as well. With good speed from the end and a 6′ 8″ frame, you can imagine how Campbell will be able to clog the passing lanes.

In short, each of the top two draft picks should contribue immediately.

Concern #2: The Cardinals did NOT select a “speedster” running back

Answer: The Cardinals J.J. Arrington ran the fastest major-college 40-yard dash with a 4.40 in 2005. Miami’s Frank Gore (49ers), with his college history of knee injuries, finished 54th with a 4.65. Since then, Arrington has yet to break 1,000 yards from scrimmage, while Gore has the most yards from scrimmage than anyone in the ‘05 class. As for the most rushing touchdowns from the ‘05 class, that’s Marion Barber, who ran the 21st-fastest pre-draft 40.

The 40-yard dash time does not always predict NFL success. But the Cardinals already have a “speedster” on their roster, so let’s hope Arrington becomes the home run threat the Cardinals expected him to be.

Concern #3: The Cardinals drafted Early Doucet to replace Anquan Boldin

Answer: Thank goodness the Anquan Boldin wants to be traded story has blown over. I’ve never taken this story seriously because Boldin is an irreplaceable component of the Cardinals offense — they’d be fools to let him get away.

Bucky Brooks from Sports Illustrated explains below why the Cardinals drafted Doucet:

Early Doucet, WR, Arizona Cardinals: The loss of Bryant Johnson in the offseason created a huge hole in the Cardinals’ three-receiver sets, but the team has identified the perfect candidate to fill the void. Doucet posted his most impressive production at LSU as a junior while playing the slot alongside first-round picks Craig Davis and Dwayne Bowe and now enters an eerily similar situation in the desert. With defenses forced to double the Pro Bowl tandem of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, Doucet will get a chance to reprise his role as the big play threat in the middle of the field.

Although rookie wide receivers notoriously start slowly (Anquan Boldin the exception!), I believe Doucet will be an upgrade from Bryant Johnson, so this is a brilliant pick.

Without knowing yet if Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will fulfill his athletic promise, or if Calais Campbell will regain the dominance he flashed during his sophomore season, I think we can safely give the Cardinals 2008 NFL Draft a B Grade.

The Cardinals didn’t pull off any spectacular trades, and didn’t have a flashy top-10 pick. The true value of their draft will take time to assess.

Do you remember how many pundits praised the Patriots in 2000 for drafting Tom Brady in the sixth round with the 199th pick? Do you remember how they received an A+ Grade from all the pundits? I don’t, because it didn’t happen.

Nobody realized what a steal Tom Brady was until years later.

The truth is, all we can do is hope the Cardinals drafted well, but we won’t know if they found any “Tom Brady” steals until 2010.

And by that time, everyone will have forgotten about the pundits.

Category: 2008 Season, NFL Draft | Tags: Anquan Boldin, Calais Campbell, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Early Doucet, J.J. Arrington

Round 3 Pick - Early Doucet

April 27, 2008

Let’s hope success comes Early… The Cardinals drafted Early Doucet, the 6′ 0″ 212 lbs. wide receiver out of LSU who caught 57 receptions for 525 yards (9.2 yard average) and five touchdowns in 2007.

With the departure of Cardinal’s WR Bryant Johnson through free agency, Doucet should be able to step into the Cardinal’s starting slot receiver role and make tough catches over the middle in 2008.

Height: 6′ 0″
Weight: 212 lbs.
Age: 21
Speed: 4.55 40-yard dash

Watch Early Doucet’s pro day workout here.

Doucet was sidelined for 4 1/2 games with a severely pulled groin muscle, so his production and draft stock fell off in 2007. Originally projected to be a second round draft pick, the Cardinals may have found great value in the third round by drafting the talented route runner with the 81st pick.

Category: 2008 Season, NFL Draft | Tags: Early Doucet, LSU, NFL Draft, Tigers